Curiosity and Data: How Great Route Developers Think Like Detectives

I recently sat down with aviation analyst and consultant John Strickland to talk about airline strategy, air service development, and the changes we’ve seen in aviation over the past few decades.

John has worked in Revenue Management, Network Planning, and consulting. During our conversation, one theme kept coming back.

The best route developers don’t just analyze data.

They think like detectives.

That resonated with me because it reflects something I’ve come to believe in my own work. Data is essential. Every airport, airline, and consultant today has access to more information than ever before. Historical traffic flows, fares, schedules, search trends, mobile data, booking data… the industry is not short of numbers.

The challenge is figuring out what they mean.

When the Data Doesn’t Exist Yet

John illustrated the point with a story from his time helping build Buzz’s network from London Stansted to secondary French airports such as La Rochelle, Bergerac, Tours, or Dijon.

The problem was that the traditional aviation data didn’t provide many answers. Most of these routes had never existed before. There was little traffic history and no established market to analyze. If the team had relied solely on historical airline data, many of those routes would never have been launched.

Instead, they started looking elsewhere.

They looked at property ownership patterns. Tourism flows. Ferry traffic. Local economic activity. They spoke with airports, tourism boards, chambers of commerce, and local stakeholders. They tried to understand how people actually lived and travelled.

Many of those routes proved successful enough to continue operating long after Buzz was acquired by Ryanair.

What struck me about that story is how relevant it remains today.

In my own work, I often find that the most interesting insights don’t come from a spreadsheet. They come from conversations.

A route opportunity may not look obvious in historical traffic data, but it can become much more compelling once you understand the wider context. Maybe a destination is attracting a different type of traveler than it did five years ago. Maybe a major employer is expanding. Maybe a cruise market is booming. Maybe affluent travelers are increasingly discovering a destination that was previously overlooked.

These are often the details that turn a market opportunity into a route opportunity.

Seeing What the Numbers Hide

John shared another example that has stayed with me.

He recalled a conversation with Emirates President Sir Tim Clark about the launch of Shanghai–Dubai. The traditional traffic data suggested only limited demand between the two cities. Yet Emirates saw something that wasn’t immediately visible in the numbers: growing Chinese investment across Africa and Dubai’s potential as a connecting hub between the two regions.

As Tim explained, the opportunity wasn’t simply Shanghai–Dubai.

It was Shanghai–Africa via Dubai.

That insight helped shape one of the world’s most successful long-haul networks.

Markets Evolve

You can see similar patterns elsewhere.

Take Athens. In 2015, Athens had just three nonstop routes to the United States and roughly 237,000 annual seats. By 2025, that had grown to approximately 1.63 million seats across 24 nonstop routes. Capacity increased by nearly 600%, yet airlines continued to report strong load factors throughout the expansion.

Lisbon followed a different path. Already a substantial transatlantic market in 2015, it grew from roughly 479,000 seats to more than 2.3 million annual seats by 2025. Rather than a story of new geography, Lisbon’s success came from increasing depth, connectivity, and the growing strength of Portugal’s tourism proposition.

The lesson isn’t that every airport can become Athens or Lisbon.

The lesson is that markets evolve.

Traveler behavior changes. Destinations reposition themselves. Airlines rethink their networks. The most attractive opportunities are often visible before they become obvious in the historical data.

That’s why I often tell clients that traffic data is only the starting point. The more interesting question is what happens next.

Below the Top of the Iceberg

One of my favorite comments from John during our conversation was that airports shouldn’t simply tell airlines what they already know. They should help airlines understand what lies below the top of the iceberg.

That observation captures much of what good air service development is about.

Airlines know their schedules. They know their fares. They know their competitors. What they may not fully understand is the local story: the companies that are growing, the tourism investments that are coming online, the changing travel patterns, or the economic developments that could create demand in the future.

That’s where airports, destinations, and consultants can make a difference.

At Reperio, this is the part of the work I enjoy most. Talking to people. Understanding what is changing. Looking beyond the obvious. Connecting pieces of information that don’t immediately appear related.

Because in the end, great route development isn’t just about understanding what happened yesterday.

It’s about spotting what might happen tomorrow. And for that, data and curiosity work best together.

Source for Athens and Lisbon capacity analysis: Reperio analysis of U.S. DOT T-100 International Segment Data.